You are scrolling back through the thread to check, which is itself an answer.
Every message that starts a conversation is yours. She replies, often warmly, sometimes at length. She seems glad to hear from you. And then nothing, for as long as you leave it, which you once tested by leaving it, and it was eleven weeks.
Here is what it usually means, in rough order of how likely it is.
1. She is a responder, not an initiator
Some people simply do not start things. Not with you, not with anyone. They keep in touch with their sister because their sister calls. Their whole social life is other people's momentum, and they do not experience this as a decision.
How to tell: ask a mutual friend whether she initiates with them. This one question resolves the situation more often than anything else, and almost nobody thinks to ask it.
If she does it to everybody, it is a trait rather than a message about you. That does not mean you have to keep carrying it. It means you are not being rejected.
2. She has more capacity than you and less need
She has a partner, three people at work she likes, and a sister ten minutes away. Her week is full. She is fond of you and thinks of you rarely.
This is the one that hurts, because there is nothing wrong and no villain, and the honest description is that the friendship is more important to you than to her.
How to tell: she is warm when you make contact and never follows up on anything she said she would do.
3. Something happened and she has not said
Less common than people fear, but it happens, and the tell is a change rather than a constant. If she used to initiate and stopped, and you can point to roughly when, something is there.
How to tell: the replies get shorter and more polite. Politeness is the giveaway. Friends are not polite with each other.
4. She is not okay
Depression, a diagnosis nobody has been told about, a marriage in trouble. When people are struggling, the first thing to go is the outbound message, because starting a conversation requires believing that somebody wants to hear from you.
How to tell: she has gone quiet with everyone at once, and there are cancellations rather than refusals.
The message that finds out
If you want to know rather than keep wondering, this asks without accusing:
"I've been the one messaging for a while and I'm not sure if you're just bad at texting or if something's up. Genuinely no pressure either way, I'd just rather ask than guess."
It works because it offers her the easy answer first. Almost everybody takes "bad at texting" if it is true, and the ones for whom something is up will usually tell you, because you have made it possible to do that without a confession.
Do not send this in a low moment, and do not send it after four unanswered messages. Send it on a Tuesday when you are fine.
If you want to stop carrying it without ending it
You do not have to choose between doing all the work and having no friendship. There is a middle setting, and it is not passive aggression, it is honesty about capacity:
"I'm going to be worse at keeping in touch this year, but I'd love to see you when I surface."
Then be worse at it. Not as a test, and not as a punishment. If the friendship survives at a lower intensity, it was real at that intensity. If it stops entirely, you have learned something you could not have learned any other way.
What not to do
Do not keep score out loud. "I always message first" is true and it makes her defend rather than answer. The version above says the same thing without the ledger.
Do not do a deliberate silence to see what happens. You already know what happens: eleven weeks. The test costs you the friendship and tells you nothing you did not know.
Do not decide it means she does not care. People are astonishingly bad at maintenance and astonishingly fond of people they never contact. Both things are true at once, and confusing them costs people friendships that were fine.
What it costs
Asking costs you the comfortable version where you never find out.
There is a real chance she says something like "I'm just terrible at this, I'm so sorry" and then continues to be terrible at it, and you now know that she knows, and the silence afterwards means something it did not mean before. That is the actual risk, and it is worth naming before you send anything.
What you get is the end of the scrolling back. Either she tells you something true, or she does not answer, and the not answering is also an answer, and you can stop doing the arithmetic every few weeks about who messaged last.
One story and one script, once a week
No advice you have read before, and nothing we would not say to a friend at our own kitchen table.
The list opens shortly. We would rather have nowhere to put your address than pretend to collect it.
